The India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced the full withdrawal of the southwest monsoon from India, occurring four days later than the customary date of October 15. This development signals the imminent commencement of the northeast monsoon over the southern peninsular region, although the initial phase is anticipated to be relatively weak, according to the IMD.
This year’s monsoon season officially concluded on September 30, registering only 94% of the long-period average (LPA) rainfall. This classification designates the monsoon season as “below normal.” Typically, rainfall between 96% and 104% of the LPA is considered normal.
In 2023, India recorded below-average cumulative rainfall, measuring 820 mm compared to the LPA of 868.6 mm during the four-month monsoon season from June to September. The subpar monsoon season is largely attributed to the strengthening El Nino conditions.
El Nino conditions are associated with weakened monsoon winds and drier weather in India. Notably, El Nino conditions have developed for the first time in seven years, impacting the monsoon patterns in the region.
The IMD reported a low-pressure area over the southeast and adjoining east-central Arabian Sea, which is expected to progress west-northwestwards and transform into a well-marked low-pressure area over the southwest Arabian Sea within the next 24 hours. Thereafter, it is predicted to intensify further into a depression over the southwest Arabian Sea, approximately around October 21.
In addition to this, there is a cyclonic circulation over the southeast Bay of Bengal, likely leading to the formation of a low-pressure area over central parts of the Bay of Bengal by October 21 morning. Subsequently, this low-pressure area is expected to intensify further into a depression over the west-central Bay of Bengal around October 23.
A cyclonic circulation has also been identified over the Comorin area and its neighborhood in lower and middle tropospheric levels.
While the IMD does not anticipate significant weather activity over north India in the next 3-4 days, there may be minor rainfall in some northern regions on Friday and Saturday due to a feeble western disturbance. Meanwhile, experts are closely monitoring the low-pressure systems in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, with their intensification and trajectory expected to become clearer in the coming days.
These weather developments underscore the continuing influence of the monsoon transition and the dynamic weather patterns affecting various regions of India.
Sources By Agencies