In a recent development, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a warning regarding the formation of a cyclonic storm in the Arabian Sea. The IMD reported that a low-pressure area over the southeast and southwest Arabian Sea has evolved into a depression, and it is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm by Saturday morning. Following the naming convention for cyclones in the Indian Ocean Region, this impending storm will be designated as ‘Tej.’
This is the second cyclonic storm to form in the Arabian Sea this year, raising concerns about its potential impact on the region. According to IMD forecasts, the cyclonic storm may further intensify into a severe cyclonic storm by Sunday. It is expected to move towards the south coasts of Oman and neighboring Yemen. However, meteorologists caution that storms can sometimes deviate from their predicted tracks and intensify at different points than initially forecasted.
An interesting precedent was set earlier this year when Cyclone Biparjoy formed in the Arabian Sea. Initially, it was projected to move in a north-northwest direction, but it ultimately changed its course, making landfall between Gujarat’s Madvi and Pakistan’s Karachi.
While private forecasting agency Skymet Weather suggests that a majority of models indicate the cyclonic storm is heading towards the Yemen-Oman coast, the Global Forecast System models have raised the possibility of re-curvature while the storm is positioned over deep central parts of the Arabian Sea. This could potentially divert the cyclone towards the coasts of Pakistan and Gujarat.
The IMD classifies cyclonic systems into different categories based on their wind speeds. A system is categorized as a Cyclonic Storm when its 3-minute average maximum sustained wind speeds range between 63-88 kmph. As it intensifies further, it could be classified as a severe cyclonic storm, very severe cyclonic storm, or even an extremely severe cyclonic storm, depending on the wind speeds.
In addition to the cyclone alert, IMD recently announced the withdrawal of the southwest monsoon from India, four days after the normal date of October 15. As the northeast monsoon begins with the establishment of north easterlies over southern peninsular India, the southern peninsular region is likely to experience monsoon conditions in the coming days.
As authorities in Oman and Yemen prepare for the potential impact of Cyclonic Storm ‘Tej,’ the IMD and other meteorological agencies will continue to closely monitor its progress and provide updates to ensure the safety and preparedness of the affected regions.
Sources By Agencies