India is expected to receive an ‘above normal’ monsoon this year, with overall rainfall projected at 106% of the Long Period Average (LPA), according to the latest forecast by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The forecast covers the monsoon season from June to September.
IMD Director General M Mohapatra stated, “We can say that monsoon is expected to be good over most parts of the country.” The Met department emphasized that normal to above-normal rainfall is likely across most of India, except for parts of northwest, east, and many areas of northeast India, where below-normal rainfall is expected.
Rainfall Probability Breakdown:
- Above normal (105-110% of LPA): 32% chance
- Excess (>110% of LPA): 27% chance
- Normal (96-104% of LPA): 31% chance
- Below normal (90-95% of LPA): 8% chance
- Deficient (<90% of LPA): 2% chance
The IMD has warned that while increased rainfall benefits agriculture and water resource management, it also heightens the risk of flooding, transportation disruption, health concerns, and ecological damage. “To address these risks, strategies can include reinforcing infrastructure, making use of IMD’s early warning systems, strengthening surveillance and conservation initiatives, and establishing response mechanisms within sectors that are particularly vulnerable,” the department advised.
June Outlook:
Above normal rainfall is expected across most parts of India in June. Notably, the IMD recorded the monsoon onset over Kerala on May 24 — eight days ahead of the normal date of June 1.
The temperature forecast indicates normal to below-normal daytime temperatures over much of the country, except for northwest and northeast India, where above-normal temperatures are anticipated. Night temperatures, however, are expected to remain above normal across most regions, barring parts of Central India and the adjoining southern peninsula.
Interestingly, fewer heatwave days are expected this June. While northwest India typically experiences two to three heatwave days during this month, the IMD expects below-normal or minimal occurrences this year. However, officials warned of humid heat and higher night-time temperatures, which may still pose health risks.
ENSO & Climate Factors:
Currently, neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions prevail over the equatorial Pacific, and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is also neutral. These are expected to remain largely unchanged during the monsoon, although a weak negative IOD may develop. This suggests that the traditionally hostile influence of El Nino on monsoon rainfall is not expected to be significant this season.
While El Nino is typically linked to weaker monsoons and hotter summers in India, La Nina tends to bring stronger monsoons and cooler winters. However, both phenomena are now unfolding in the context of human-induced climate change, which is altering global temperatures, intensifying extreme weather events, and affecting seasonal rainfall patterns, as warned by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
Monsoon Progress:
Commenting on monsoon advancement, Mohapatra noted, “Monsoon made a classical onset and progressed very quickly over large areas in association with a monsoon vortex.” A depression over the Arabian Sea aided its early arrival, and now a developing low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal is expected to support further progression. However, the IMD has cautioned that monsoon advancement may slow down after 3–4 days.
As India prepares for a wetter-than-usual monsoon, authorities and citizens are urged to remain alert and leverage early warning systems and preparedness strategies to mitigate risks while maximizing agricultural and water management opportunities.
Sources By Agencies